In the previous article I had mentioned I would analyse results of Carlsen, however I have switched to Aronian because Carlsen plays a lot of open tourneys. This may corrupt the data as it is different from Round Robin. Furthermore Aronian is closer to the world’s elite than Carlsen and also he has had a rich vein of form recently. However I will still stick to Morozoveich and Leko.
From the April 2006 list, Aronian has played in Corus, Linares 06, Dortmund 06, Tal Memorial 06, Corus 07 and Linares 07. He has scored + 3 in the first half against an average rating of 2725 in 37 games. His performance has been very respectable at 2753 with two 2800+ performances. However his second half performance is at + 3 in 33 games against an average rating of 2729. But his rating performance is only 2718… This is where the system I am employing here can be faulty. The disastrous finish Aronian had in Dortmund with 0/3 ruined the numbers, however without that result his performance is 2798!!! His performance has been bettered in the second 2 times, the same twice and also in Linares 06 he supported his good start with another steady show giving him the title there.
Now for the ever consistent Leko, I wonder how he fairs in this acid test. He has played in Corus 06, Linares 06, Dortmund 06, Tal Memorial 06 and Linares 07. He has scored +2 in the first half against an average rating of 2725 in 32 games to come up with an overall performance of 2778, which is very solid and also exceeds his present rating. However the next piece of the data may not be a shocker, Leko has score a dismal -2 in 27 games against an average rating of 2729 for an overall performance of 2718. This is probably why Leko has built up an image of a choker at the finish line, having lost the decisive last games against Kramnik in Brissago in 2004 and in the Dortmund 06. Leko’s brilliant 5/7 start in Linares 06 was ruined by a 2.5/7 finish. Leko has in fact only improved his 1st half performance in the Tal memorial in which he scored +1 in both halves; however the performance increased due to higher opposition rating. Leko’s overall second half performance has only been 2719.
The last player in this article is the creative yet unpredictable Alexander Morozoveich. Why is he unpredictable, you will just find out! He has played in the Russian Championship 05, Biel 06, Tal Memorial 06, Pamplona 06 and Linares 07. He has chalked up a +4 score in 26 games against an average rating of 2677 for an overall performance of 2778. And guess what? It includes a 2587, 2903 and a 2978 performance! Many people have ups and down but Moro has Tops and Bottoms! In the second half Moro has a +7 in 24 games against a rating of 2698 for an overall performance of 2803! So overall the second half is better than the first. If you look at his performances they drop slightly, but come on who would mind a performance of 2973 dropping to 2924 in Pamplona for example! It still includes 2 2900+ performances and 1 under 2600 performance. One could argue that Moro has played weak opposition compared to all others I have analysed earlier. However Moro did chalk a fabulous 5.5/7 score in the Linares leg in Feb-March 2007, which is no mean feat by any stretch of imagination!
Now what conclusions can I draw from this? Aronian is pretty much a steady player giving relatively similar performances; Leko is a good starter however falls well short on the final hurdle which is the reason for him not winning the World Championship match, Dortmund and Linares. And what can I say about Morozoveich? He comes up with performances like the Number 1 player and also sometimes performances of a World number 200! I guess this analysis wont affect Moro in anyway because he is just too unpredictable!
Thanks for reading,
Siddharth
P.S Tomorrow’s final part will be a final conclusion with data about Indian players.
